Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has got something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
